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The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History

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Aber selbst wenn sich die Hoffnungen der Ukraine auf unangefochtene Souveränität nicht erfüllen, hat Russland sich entlarvt. Es wird schwierig werden, die Welt davon zu überzeugen, dass man seiner Regierung/Regime trauen kann. On the other hand, however, Russia’s aggression did help arm and train Ukraine, which built a formidable, if still inadequately armed, army. When all-out war came in 2022, Ukraine was in a much stronger position to defend itself, particularly once NATO and the European Union overcame their reluctance to adequately support one of the few democracies in the former Soviet space. Plokhy begs to differ on many of the ideas advanced by Putin. On the language question, he argues that the dissimilarities outweigh the similarities: yes, both use a variation of the Cyrillic alphabet, and yes, both have many words in common (estimates of about 50%–60% of words are common). But, he argues, the linguistic differences go well beyond simple differences in dialect. In dit licht bezien was het besluit van Boris Jeltsin in 1993 om met militaire middelen een einde te maken aan de onafhankelijke positie van het Russische parlement van grote betekenis voor de toekomstige verhoudingen tussen Rusland en Oekraïne. Hij voerde daarna een nieuwe grondwet in die de macht verplaatste naar de president. De presidentiële verkiezingen van 1996, die Jeltsin slechts met grote moeite van de Communisten wist te winnen door zich te verbinden aan de nieuwe ‘oligarchen’-klasse, zetten de ontwikkeling van Rusland naar een “‘managed’ or ‘sovereign’ democracy” kracht bij. (48) Aldus werd de weg geplaveid voor een terugkeer naar een autoritaire regeringsvorm.

Serhii Plokhy oferă o privire cuprinzătoare asupra contextului istoric și a primelor luni ale războiului în curs de desfășurare din Ucraina. Urmărind secole de relații turbulente între Rusia și Ucraina, Plokhy susține că acest conflict a fost pregătit de zeci de ani, alimentat de ambițiile imperiale ale lui Putin și de lunga luptă a Ucrainei pentru suveranitate (și păstrarea identității sale). US supplies of sophisticated weapons such as long-range artillery systems have driven Ukraine’s counter-offensive. Putin has long railed against American hegemony and called for a “multipolar” world. Plokhy believes the war has taken us into a new age of superpower rivalry. Its poles, however, are Washington and Beijing. Moscow is China’s weaker and poorer partner. An illuminating account of the war in Ukraine - its historical roots, its course, its possible outcomes - from the bestselling, award-winning author of Chernobyl A significant early figure in Kyivan Rus' history is Rurik, the founder of the Rurikid dynasty. His grandson, Vladimir (the Great) is Russia's patron saint. Vladimir was born circa 960AD. In 970AD Rurik granted the Grand Duchy of Novgorod to his illegitimate son, Vladimir, making Vladimir the Grand Prince of Novgorod. In 972AD Vladimir's older and legitimate half-brother, Yaropolk, was given Kiev and became Grand Prince of Kyiv. Whatever happens, historians will draw on this book when assessing the history of this war. Alongside journalists such as Anna Arutunyan, Luke Harding and Owen Matthews, Plokhy has provided an invaluable first draft of a history of this war.Plokhy schreibt in absolut verständlicher Form von dem Angriff Russlands auf die Ukraine, den in der Ukraine kaum einer für möglich gehalten hat, auch Wolodymyr Selenskyj nicht, obwohl mehrfach von den Amerikanern vorgewarnt. Plokhy erzählt von den ersten Tagen und Wochen, von dem Entsetzen, von den Gräueltaten der Russen, von ihren falschen Erwartungen, von dem Leiden der Bevölkerung, vom tapferen Widerstand des ukrainischen Militärs und Paramilitärs, von den Massenfluchten. His latest title, The Russo-Ukrainian War, is in a similar elegant vein. It is deeply personal, too. On the morning of the invasion he phoned his sister in Zaporizhzhia, where there were explosions. A friend sent a photo of a soldier reading one of Plokhy’s books in a trench; days later, the young man was killed. The historian’s cousin Andriy Kholopov died fighting in Bakhmut, a scene of terrible slaughter. A friend sent a photo of a soldier reading one of Plokhy’s books in a trench; days later, the young man was killed

Over the last twenty-one months I have developed a deep love, admiration and respect for all things Ukrainian: her culture, her people, a beautiful rich land now ravaged by attempted domination and conquest. P.S. Vă las și un citat despre o vizită la Kiev. Sunt curioasă dacă observați ce personaj este pierdut din poveste. Și nu cred că din răutate:( Opmerkelijk genoeg relativeerde de Oekraïense regering de Amerikaanse waarschuwingen in die periode steeds. De realiteit was dat Oekraïne weinig opschoot met de Amerikaanse waarschuwingen, die het vertrouwen in de Oekraïense economie schaadden. De positie van Kiev was in de kern: 'Give us weapons, not warnings.’ While it is not entirely clear from Plokhy’s account why this war broke out when it did, his narrative demolishes the popular notion that somehow NATO was to blame. At least, not in the way this thesis is usually understood. Before my first reporting trip to Ukraine, one of my seasoned war correspondent colleagues had two pieces of advice. First, not to miss the delicious coffee and pastries you can find in Kyiv (which is a wonderfully reassuring thing to hear as you head off towards a conflict). Second, that it was absolutely necessary to read Serhii Plokhy’s 2015 book The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine. I did, and it unwound 2,500 years of complex, fascinating and often tragic events, all the way from Herodotus’s accounts of the ancient Scythians to the Maidan protests in Kyiv a decade ago. Now Plokhy and I are speaking by Zoom – me from London, he from his home near Harvard, where he is professor of Ukrainian history. He’s in his study. There are globes on every surface, and antique maps of Ukraine hang on the walls.

Mearsheimers advies werd niet opgevolgd. In plaats daarvan zette de Clinton-regering Kiev onder druk om de in Oekraïne aanwezige kernwapens aan Rusland af te staan. Na lang wikken en wegen gaf Oekraïne zijn kernwapens inderdaad op, in ruil voor de belofte van de permanente leden van de VN-Veiligheidsraad (met inbegrip van Rusland) om de Oekraïense soevereiniteit te eerbiedigen — vastgelegd in het Boedapest-memorandum van 1994. In aanvulling hierop tekenden Jeltsin en Kuchma in 1997 een ‘vriendschapsverdrag’ om het probleem van de Russische Zwarte Zee-vloot op de Krim voorlopig te regelen. Ondanks het Boedapest-memorandum en het ‘vriendschapsverdrag’, kon Oekraïne zich nooit volledig veilig wanen voor Russische geopolitieke ambities (te meer niet omdat het ‘vriendschapsverdrag’ strandde in de Russische Doema). Oekraïne zocht daarom, in navolging van Polen en Tsjechië, voor zijn veiligheid in toenemende mate toenadering tot de Navo. Decolonisation looks different if you are part of the metropole (Russia) or one of the colonies (Ukraine). In the first case, nostalgia for past greatness easily inspires revanchism – seeking to aggressively recover lost territory. In the second case, the fall of empire opens up the vision for a better future. But there were domestic forces too. They encouraged Ukraine’s recurrent democratic corrections, whenever one strongman or another tried to move the country towards autocracy. Here, Plokhy turns perceived wisdom on its head. Zes jaar na de inname van de Krim woedde de Covid-crisis van 2020-2021. Een van de vele onvermoede gevolgen van deze mondiale gezondheidscrisis was dat een geïsoleerde Poetin zich vastbeet in een specifieke lezing van de geschiedenis en daarmee van zijn historische missie, een gevaarlijke vorm van zingeving. “Putin reads all the time, mostly about the history of Russia,” aldus zijn woordvoerder Peskov in die tijd. “He reads memoirs, the memoirs of Russian historical state figures.” Het resultaat was een essay van zijn hand, getiteld ‘On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians’, dat leest als voorbode van de Russische inval van 2022. Poetin: “I said that Russians and Ukrainians were one people — a single whole. […] It is what I have said on numerous occasions and what I firmly believe.” (136) Tegen deze achtergrond bestond er vanaf het einde van de Koude Oorlog eigenlijk voortdurend onzekerheid over de vraag of Rusland de territoriale integriteit van Oekraïne zou blijven respecteren. Al in 1992 nam het Russische parlement een resolutie aan die de Krim als onderdeel van Rusland beschouwde. Duidelijk is dat Oekraïense soevereiniteit slechts was gegarandeerd zolang het land zich schikte naar de belangen van Rusland, of zoals Plokhy schrijft: “Russia’s recognition of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the post-Soviet states would be conditional on alliance with Moscow.” (66) Onder deze omstandigheden, zo bepleitte John Mearsheimer in 1993 in Foreign Affairs, zouden de VS er goed aan doen Oekraïne toe te staan te blijven beschikken over kernwapens; volgens de Amerikaanse strateeg was dit “the most effective way to prevent a Russo-Ukrainian war [which could] ‘injure the prospects for peace throughout Europe.’” (71-2)

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